Current conditions
Check some of the key metrics that are likely to signify an active aurora.
Forecast for 9 October 2026 at 12:02am UTC.
Forecast summary
We estimate that the current conditions for viewing the aurora are Poor.
Bz is near zero at -3 nT, which is neutral for aurora activity. Solar wind speed is normal at 358.6 km/s. The Kp-index is at 1.33, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions. Hemispheric Power is at 22 GW, indicating moderate auroral activity.
For more on how to interpret these values, see our guide to reading aurora forecasts.
Kp-index
1.33
The Kp-index is a scale used to measure geomagnetic activity. It ranges from 0 to 9, with higher values indicating greater geomagnetic activity.
Northern HPI
22 GW
The Hemispheric Power Index (HPI) estimates the total auroral energy input at the poles. Values above 20 GW indicate an aurora-active state, 100 GW or more signifying a significant geomagnetic storm.
Bz
-3 nT
Bz refers to the north-south orientation of the magnetic field embedded in the solar wind. A strong negative Bz is often associated with increased chances of seeing the Northern Lights.
Bt
5 nT
Bt measures the overall power of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) from the Sun; higher numbers (e.g., above 20 nT) mean more energy available for aurora.
Solar Wind Density
6.06 p/cm3
Solar wind density refers to the number of charged particles in a given volume of the solar wind, typically measured in particles per cubic centimetre (p/cm3).
Solar Wind Speed
358.6 km/s
Solar wind speed refers to the velocity at which charged particles are ejected from the Sun’s outer atmosphere, known as the corona.
Three day forecast
Looking ahead, here are the forecast Kp-index values for the next 3 days from the NOAA.
| Time (UTC) | 8 October | 9 October | 10 October |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12am-3am | 1.00 | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| 3am-6am | 1.67 | 5.00 (G1) | 3.67 |
| 6am-9am | 1.00 | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| 9am-12pm | 2.00 | 5.67 (G2) | 3.00 |
| 12pm-3pm | 1.00 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| 3pm-6pm | 1.67 | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| 6pm-9pm | 1.67 | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| 9pm-12am | 1.67 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
In the table Kp-index values including a “G” value indicate a geomagnetic storm. NOAA uses a geomagnetic storm scale (G1-G5) to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms, with G1 being minor, G2 moderate, G3 strong, G4 severe and G5 extreme.
Aurora map
Where in the world are the current highest probabilities for viewing the aurora. Forecast for 9 October 2026 at 1:14am UTC.
Where is most likely now?
Looking at the places we track, here’s our top 10 spots with the current highest likelihood of seeing the aurora.
Forecast for 9 October 2026 at 1:14am UTC.
